Italy vs England betting preview: odds and predictions | The Sun

ENGLAND kick-off their European Championship qualifying campaign on Thursday in what is a repeat of the previous tournament’s final. Can the Three Lions gain revenge over Italy?

Italy vs England odds

Here are the latest match odds for Italy vs England.

Italy vs England betting preview

With Harry Kane’s penalty in the World Cup quarter-final having finally fallen back down to earth, England will begin to write a new chapter on Thursday.

With Gareth Southgate having agreed to stay on, the Three Lions’ attention now turns to ensuring they are at the next major tournament in Germany next summer, namely Euro 2024.

While the bookmakers and general public expect them to breeze through qualifying (as they usually do), their group looks one of the toughest they’ve had for a while.

Not only do they face reigning European champions Italy but there’s also Euro 2020 quarter-finalists Ukraine ready to pounce on any slip-ups, not to mention the team that stunned Italy in last year’s World Cup play-offs, North Macedonia. Malta are the other side in the pool but they look unlikely to trouble the contenders.

The quality of opposition means a strong start is vital and England will know that defeat in Italy on Thursday would immediately heap pressure on them.

Southgate continues to be criticised in some quarters for not letting his team off the leash but it’s hard to see him going against the grain here given the need for some sort of result in what is likely to be the hardest fixture of the group.

The loss of Marcus Rashford is undoubtedly a blow – he would surely have started on the left of the attack given his club form – but Italy have arguably greater problems in their attack with their Euro 2020 star Ciro Immobile ruled out, alongside probable replacement Giacomo Raspadori, the man who scored the only goal when these sides last met in September in the Nations League.

The loss of attacking talent only strengthens the case for this being a tight game, one that neither side will want to lose.

Therefore going low on goals looks the way to go, just as it was in both Nations League fixtures, as well as the famous Euro 2020 final which Italy went on to win on penalties.

England will be gunning for revenge, although how desperate the need for it will be is open to question.

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Italy vs England key stats

  • England have not beaten Italy away from home since 1961.
  • In-form Manchester United star Marcus Rashford is a significant absentee for England, with Nick Pope and Mason Mount having also withdrawn from Gareth Southgate’s original squad.
  • Italy will be without main striker Ciro Immobile, while potential back-up Giacomo Raspadori also failed to make the squad due to injury. Federico Chiesa is another notable name absent.
  • Harry Kane needs one more goal to set a new England goalscoring record. He is currently tied with Wayne Rooney on 53.
  • Ten of the last 13 games between these two nations have seen under 2.5 goals.

Italy vs England best bets

Alessio Romagnoli to score at any time

For those seeking a big-priced punt in what could well be a pretty dreary game, you could do a lot worse than back Romagnoli, provided he starts.

The Lazio centre-back has been tipped to make Roberto Mancini’s XI for what would be his first cap since 2019.

Look back to that period and you’ll see he scored in his last two internationals (albeit against minnows) and he’ll offer a set-piece threat in this game too.

With this looking likely to be a tight contest, it could well be decided by a set-piece goal and Romagnoli looks tempting at 25/1 to score at some stage.


Back Alessio Romagnoli to score at any time at 25/1 with Spreadex

Giovanni di Lorenzo to be carded

Right-back Di Lorenzo has been carded in three of his last seven competitive internationals and looks set to go up against Jack Grealish in this one.

Grealish is one of the Premier League’s most-fouled players, while at the World Cup the Manchester City man was fouled 10 times despite being on the pitch for just 86 minutes in total.

Throw in a high-carding referee in Srdjan Jovanovic, who has shown at least five cards in six of his last 10 internationals, and Di Lorenzo looks a decent bet at 3/1.


Back Giovanni di Lorenzo to be carded at 3/1 at bet365

Draw and under 2.5 goals

Given the importance of this game in terms of the group, it’s not difficult to envisage both sides adopting a ‘do not lose’ approach.

It’s one that Gareth Southgate’s teams have often displayed, much to some fans’ dismay, but that attitude could serve them well in what is sure to be an intimidating atmosphere at Napoli’s archaic stadium.

Likewise, Italy won’t want to be beaten in their opening game given the tricky nature of this group – the top two will qualify but Ukraine and North Macedonia should not be ruled out of that equation.

With both teams missing key attacking options, backing a low-scoring draw makes sense.

The last five matches between these sides have featured under 2.5 goals, while look longer term and it’s 10 of the last 13.

A draw with under 2.5 goals is on offer at a more-than-fair 13/5 which looks the best bet of the night.


Back draw and under 2.5 goals at 13/5 at 888sport

How to watch Italy vs England

  • Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
  • Time: Thursday, March 23, 19:45 GMT
  • Where to watch: Channel 4

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